Pick a scenario, run predictions, and see the most likely champion paths. Deeper model details, data health, and sources stay tucked into the later tabs.
Start here: leave the defaults alone, press Run predictions, then read the favorites board. Groups, Bracket, and Chances update from the same Monte Carlo run.
See standings, played results, and predicted upcoming scores. The top two in each group advance, plus the eight best third-place teams.
Follow the projected knockout path from the Round of 32 to the final. After predictions run, each match shows the most common winner for that matchup.
Round-of-32 slots follow the public bracket structure. Third-place assignment uses validated FIFA Annex C mappings when available and otherwise uses a legal allocator checked across all 495 possible eight-third-place group combinations.
A fuller table of each team's chance to reach later rounds in the current prediction run.
Current embedded tournament facts, schedule progress, remaining matches and days, scoring totals, and fair-play inputs used for group ranking.
The app shows its assumptions, coefficients, match inputs, venue/weather effects, tiebreakers, and scoreline logic here so the prediction is inspectable without crowding the main screen.
Final group-table incentive is derived from embedded standings. Confirmed lineup, goalkeeper, suspension, and key-absence modifiers apply only when verified source metadata is embedded; otherwise they remain neutral. Current default goal penalties: key absence 0.055, suspension 0.045, goalkeeper downgrade 0.035, rotation 0.030.
For advanced users: paste JSON, import a JSON file, export the current data, or reset to the embedded baseline. Validation repairs malformed critical sections and reports schema health.
Self-tests verify tournament shape, team references, duplicate IDs, score sanity, bracket constraints, saved-data repair, and prediction consistency.
Source quality, validation gates, rollback path, and unresolved risks for future data updates.
Future data updates should patch BASE_DATA with current results, rankings, squads, injuries, suspensions, venues, weather, exact bracket mappings, and tactical/news modifiers. The simulator validates, repairs, tests, and reports schema health on load.
This is a probabilistic model, not an official FIFA product or betting tool.